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国际油价飙升 三公司有望成赢家

发布时间:2021-02-22 07:07:17

中国石化新闻网讯 据2月21日The Motley Fool报道,今年以来,石油价格一路飙升,涨幅超过25%,最近已突破每桶60美元。今年的飙升已将原油价格推升至疫情爆发前的水平之上。与此同时,油价的上涨可能不会结束,因为在需求开始复苏之际,欧佩克和其他产油国正严格控制供应。

在这样的背景下,如果油价持续上涨,合同钻井公司Helmerich & Payne、油气生产商德文能源和设备制造商卡特彼勒这三家公司的股票价格具有最大的上行潜力。

鲁本·格雷格·布鲁尔(Helmerich & Payne):油价下跌时,能源服务公司会受到冲击,因为他们的客户会减少支出。但当价格开始上涨时,趋势就会转向另一个方向。这就是为什么如果油价飙升,Helmerich & Payne应该会从中受益。


另一方面,该公司拥有一支庞大的高端钻机队伍。简单地说,最好的钻井平台将首先恢复工作。具体来说,其234台高端钻机中目前只有80台是外包的,因此还有很大的上行潜力。同样值得注意的是,Helmerich & Payne的主要市场是美国的水力压裂领域,与其他钻探方法相比,水力压裂可以相对较快地提高产量。

因此,在需求回升之前,Helmerich & Payne有足够的实力生存下去,这些钻井平台最有可能首先重新投入使用,并在一个应该能够迅速增长的市场上运营。这听起来像是一个成功的组合。

德文能源公司Matt DiLallo:当油价上涨时,石油生产商为股东创造价值的记录很糟糕。他们通常会把高油价带来的现金流浪费在钻探新油井或回购股票上,结果下次石油市场崩盘时,这些资金就会化为灰烬。





卡特彼勒认为自己在能源市场上有价值,这一点在其最近一次收购中得到了进一步证明——以约3.75亿美元的价格收购了Weir Group的石油和天然气部门。油价反弹应有助于卡特彼勒从收购中释放出更大的价值,尽管油价上涨鼓励能源企业重启资本支出计划,并刺激对卡特彼勒擅长的往复式发动机等设备的需求。


王佳晶 摘译自 The Motley Fool


Oil Is Surging: These 3 Stocks Would Be Big Winners in an Oil Boom

Oil prices have been on fire this year, surging by more than 25% and recently topping $60 a barrel. This year's surge has pushed crude oil pricing back above its pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, oil's run might not be done since OPEC and other producers are keeping a tight lid on supplies at a time when demand is starting to recover.

Given this backdrop, we asked some of our energy contributors which oil stocks they believe are best positioned to benefit if oil prices continue booming. They see some of the sector's best upside potential in contract driller Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP), oil and gas producer Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN), and equipment maker Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT). Here's why.

The right tools

Reuben Gregg Brewer (Helmerich & Payne): Energy services get roughed up when oil falls because their customers pull back on spending. But when prices start heading higher the trend goes the other direction. Which is why Helmerich & Payne should benefit if oil prices take off (even more than they have already). The company has a couple of important things going for it.

First, it has a really strong balance sheet, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 15%, and ample liquidity, roughly $1.3 billion. In other words, it has the financial strength to muddle through today's hard times and also the cash to take advantage of the next upturn. That means it can pivot back to growth as soon as demand picks up again.

Which brings up point No. 2: It has a large fleet of high-end drilling rigs. Simply put, the best rigs will get put back to work first. To put a number on that, only 80 of its 234 high-end rigs are currently contracted out, leaving a lot of upside potential. It is worth noting, too, that Helmerich & Payne's primary market is the U.S. fracking sector, which can ramp up production relatively quickly compared to other drilling methods.

So, Helmerich & Payne has the strength to survive until demand picks up, the rigs that will most likely get put back to work first, and operates in a market that should be able to ramp up quickly. That sounds like a winning combination.

A gusher of dividends at higher crude prices

Matt DiLallo (Devon Energy): Oil producers have a lousy track record of creating value for shareholders when oil prices are booming. They've usually wasted the cash flow generated at higher oil prices on drilling new wells or buying back their stock, only to have the next oil market bust incinerate that capital.

However, this year's oil market recovery might be different. U.S. producers have promised not to ramp up their drilling programs as oil prices rise. On top of that, oil companies are starting to get creative in how they return cash to their shareholders. Devon Energy is leading that charge by launching an industry-first variable dividend program. The oil producer aims to pay out up to 50% of its excess cash each quarter after funding its sustainable base dividend and maintenance capital program.

Devon's first variable dividend was a gusher at $0.19 per share ($128 million in total), more than double its base quarterly payout of $0.11 per share ($42 million). That payment is likely only a small taste of the variable dividend's potential since Devon's free cash flow rises with oil prices. For example, at $50 oil, Devon could produce more than $1 billion in free cash flow this year. Meanwhile, at the current oil price of more than $60 a barrel, Devon's free cash flow would approach $1.75 billion in 2021. With as much as half of those funds going back to shareholders via its variable dividend program, Devon could be a winning investment this year on booming oil prices.

Neha Chamaria (Caterpillar): While my colleagues have prudently picked out oil and gas stocks that should be major beneficiaries from any rise in the price of oil, I'll deviate and recommend a company that doesn't quite belong to the sector but has significant stake in it nonetheless: Caterpillar.

Although Caterpillar is better known for its construction and mining equipment, oil price should matter to the company more than ever now given its increasing exposure to the sector. To put a number to that, consider that energy and transportation (E&T) toppled construction industries to emerge as Caterpillar's largest segment in 2020, accounting for nearly 42% of its total revenue. Sales from the segment, though, declined 21% in the year, dragged largely by a depressed oil and gas market. Oil and gas has been the largest end market for E&T in recent years.

That Caterpillar sees value in the energy markets is further evidenced by its latest acquisition -- that of the oil and gas division from The Weir Group for roughly $375 million. Oil's rebound should help Caterpillar unlock greater value from the acquisition even as higher prices encourage energy companies to revive their capital spending plans and spur demand for equipment like the reciprocating engines Caterpillar specializes in.

Surging oil, therefore, could be a shot in the arm for E&T and play an important role in the revival of Caterpillar's sales and profits going forward.

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